Replay

Gwern

by Gwern Branwen

314 posts

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Posts314

On Justifications

2 min

Philosophical fiction or a prose poem about suffering innocents and the theodicy In the bestiaries of Borges are always to be found some mention, however oblique, of the Tzadikim Nistarim , the sadly...

Philosophy

Hybrid Rainbow

1 min

Poem about man & his machines. “How long will this last? I’m so tired of these games.” «We’ve only begun; how is it the same? Just wait and this soon will pass.

Fiction: Verse

How the Panther Got Black

10 min

Once long ago in the dawn of the World, when all tastes were more savory than now, all smells more pungent, all hues more brilliantly dazzling, when tigers smoked pipes—Panther was lying by a road in...

Fiction: Prose

On Disrespect

5 min

But of course, we use ‘respect’ in contexts other than historical discussions or when talking about accomplishments (“I really respect Jimmy’s ability to long-jump 13 feet!”).

Philosophy

Dying Outside

1 min

Poem about Hal Finney announcing beginning tracheostomy before dying of ALS. He will die outside, he says.

Fiction: Verse

Immoral Books

3 min

There is no such thing as a moral or immoral book. Books are well written or badly written. Oscar Wilde The morality of books has long been a debated question.

Philosophy

Brave Poem

1 min

Poem on memory inspired by the anime Angel Beats! ; do you remember love?

Fiction: Verse

Missing Cities

3 min

So. It came to pass that I should read a slim book within my library, pushed back by neglect.

Fiction: Prose

Resilient Haskell Software

6 min

In 2007 19ya , Haskell began to experience some real growth; one of the new users was myself.

Haskell

Dinosaur Comicscomics

16 min

Comics using the format of Ryan North’s Dinosaur Comics When I was a high-schooler, I greatly enjoyed Ryan North’s formalist Dinosaur Comics ; I was impressed by how much he could do within the...

Fiction: Prose

The Sword of Achilles

7 min

Around 1200 B.C. (the story goes) the Greek forces were gathering in preparation for their assault on the city of Troy.

Docs: Science

The Conscience of the Otaking: The Studio Gainax Saga in Four Parts

50 min

[ Animerica volume 4, issue 2; PDF scan ] [caption left: “ otaku : (oh-TAH-koo) n. Term used to refer to fanatical devotees of anime or manga.

Docs: NGE

The Snowbanks of Time

5 min

A chapter in a fanfiction reminded me of an old philosophical point about contradictions and tautologies—that they imply everything else.

Fiction: Verse

Against the Miletians and the One True Element

4 min

For lack of diagrams, I represent the graphs of elemental transformation textually. A directed graph has nodes. A node is bi- or uni-directional.

Philosophy

Interviewing translator Michael House

14 min

Was it that different from what had gone before? There was no shortage of Gunbuster or Nadia merchandising, and General Products did a lot of merchandising for other series.

Docs: NGE

Console Insurance Is A Ripoff

7 min

Back of envelope financial calculations: Warranties, fine; insurance, no! Consider the poor consumer considering ‘insurance’.

Economics

May 1997AnimeLandInterview with Hideaki Anno (English)

7 min

[Page 19] [Image, right, of Hideaki Anno with short black hair, thin mustache and beard, wearing a hoodie vest, rolled-up over long-sleeved white shirt, flashing a V-sign.

Docs: NGE

Simulation Inferences

7 min

And if we accept #1, we’re saying that no one will ever attain the heights of power necessary to simulate worlds—that the necessary computing power will not come into existence.

Epistemology

Wikipedia and Other Wikis

4 min

Network effects & benefits of gritting one’s teeth & submitting to a Wikipedia’s rules, rather than using Wikia or one’s own site. “You also raise an interesting point about specialized wikis.

Wikipedia

On The Battlefield of ‘Superflat’

24 min

by Noi Sawaragi Translated by Linda Hoaglund [pg187] Caption right, opposite page: Godzilla , 1954 72ya , Film poster, Approx.

Docs: Anime

The Safecracker of Hearts

1 min

The thief of time gives us memories, the safecracker of hearts restores them. I sent away for: a four year course (Bachelor of Science)— certified, cheap, easy, genuine.

Fiction: Verse

Choosing Software

8 min

There are so many tools one could use, it’s not always clear what software to pick in the open source world.

Haskell

Writing a Wikipedia RSS Link Archive Bot

15 min

Archiving using Wikipedia Recent Changes RSS feed (obsolete).

Haskell

Death Note’s Ending

13 min

The anime/manga Death Note is interesting on many levels.

Anime

Golfing Run Length Encoding in Haskell

12 min

Suppose we have levels which are specified by a pair of numbers and then a long list of numbers, often very repetitious.

Haskell

Wikipedia and Dark Side Editing

13 min

Cynical tactics encouraged by Wikipedia’s abdication of thought known as ‘No Original Research’ and ‘Reliable Sources’ One of the most distasteful aspects of Wikipedia editing these days...

Wikipedia

Wikipedia & Knol: Why Knol Already Failed

11 min

Google’s Wikipedia-killer, Google Knol , has passed some anniversaries; in January 2009 17ya , it reached its 6-month anniversary.

Wikipedia

The Crypto-Currency: Bitcoin and its mysterious inventor

20 min

[pg62] [Image caption, left top: “It’s not clear if bitcoin is legal, but there is no company in control and no one to arrest.

Docs: Crypto

Nor the Summers as Golden: Writing Multivolume Works

11 min

[pg208] How do you write stories too big for one book? That is the question I am supposed to answer here, and I ought to confess at once that I may know no more about it than you do.

Docs

Colder Wars

16 min

Orson Scott Card’s Ender’s Game SF novel is famous, and its ending well-known: the protagonist Ender Wiggin is tricked into commanding a pre-emptive invasion fleet which destroys all the enemy...

Politics

Parody inFull Metal Panic!

5 min

The unexpected critical depths of a single throw-away scene In the 3 rd episode of Full Metal Panic! The Second Raid , there is a curious introductory scene I’ve always enjoyed .

Anime

2013 Lewis meditation results

14 min

Multilevel modeling of effect of small group’s meditation on math errors A small group of Quantified Selfers tested themselves daily on arithmetic and engaged in a month of meditation.

QS

Aria’s Past, Present, and Future

7 min

Munch on this conspiracy theory: just as The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya is actually about how Kyon is god and not Haruhi (see The Melancholy of Kyon ), so the true story behind Aria has to do with...

Anime

Special Talk: Yutaka Izubuchi × Hideaki Anno

20 min

This interview was published in the 2003 23ya Japanese book RahXephon Complete (ISBN 4840110190); it has not been officially translated, but the ANF user Vir arranged for a rough translation.

Docs: Anime

Archiving GitHub

3 min

[ "logo boring" , "https://github.com/" , "/plans" , "/explore" , "/features" , "/blog" , "/login?return_to=https://github.

Haskell

Evolutionary Software Licenses

8 min

Game theory on BSD versus GPL: partnership? Is GPL an evolutionary stable strategy against invasion by proprietary copyright strategies?

Haskell

Wikipedia & YouTube

6 min

Why Wikipedia and YouTube will never be integrated. Criticisms of Wikipedia tend to fall into 2 categories—the clueless and the cliche.

Wikipedia

Otaku Talk

20 min

by Toshio Okada & Kaichiro Morikawa; moderated by Takashi Murakami , and translated & annotated by Reiko Tomii [pg165] [Figure opposite: From DiGiCharat 1999 27ya TV anime series] Figure right...

Docs: Anime

Ero-Anime: Manga Comes Alive

4 min

‘Lolicon’ opened the door to increasingly explicit representations of minors involved in all manner of sexual acts with other minors as well as with adults.

Docs: Anime

Alerts Over Time

14 min

Has Google Alerts been sending fewer results the past few years? Yes.

Statistics

Drugs 2.0§ Your Crack’s in the Post

36 min

The first time you see the Silk Road website there’s a creaking disconnect between your eyes and all the evidence they deliver, and your preconceptions up to that point.

Docs: Crypto

June 1996NewTypeInterview with Hideaki Anno

10 min

No longer a child, not yet an adult… Being “fourteen years old” symbolizes problems of the heart.

Docs: NGE

LW anchoring experiment

10 min

Do mindless positive/negative comments skew article quality ratings up and down?

Cognition

Gilles Goullet, Author of theBlindsight

8 min

The published work left by this novelist is easily listed.

Fiction: Prose

Poems on the theme ofGenshiken

1 min

Waka/haiku on Genshiken , clubs, and Comiket; allusions to Fujiwara no Teika and Shōtetsu.

Fiction: Verse

2014 Jed McCaleb MtGox interview

5 min

Email interview with McCaleb on early history of his MtGox, verifying it did not trade real but online Magic cards In February 2014 12ya , the Bitcoin exchange site MtGox began collapsing due to an...

Docs: Crypto

Against Copyright

10 min

Copyright considered paradoxical, incoherent, and harmful from an information theory and compression perspective as there is no natural kind corresponding to ‘works’, merely longer or shorter strings...

Economics

Ontological Pantheism

8 min

Descartes’s God is pantheism; a reductio ad absurdum of his ontology In Meditation 3 of Rene Descartes’s Meditations on First Philosophy , Descartes demonstrates the existence of God in several ways.

Philosophy

Excerpts fromLittle Boy

11 min

This transcript has been prepared from a PDF scan of pages 9–10, 40, 52–53, 70, & 88 of Little Boy: The Arts of Japan’s Exploding Subculture , edited by Takashi Murakami, published 2005-05-15, ISBN...

Docs: Anime

Plastination versus Cryonics

18 min

Break down survival as Drake equation, see how plastination differs from cryonics, try to calculate advantage No man is an iland, intire of it selfe; every man is a peece of the Continent, a part of...

Practical

2014 Spirulina randomized self-experiment

7 min

Spirulina users’ randomized trial on self-rated allergy symptoms: null result. The supplement Spirulina has been suggested to help allergy symptoms.

QS

Melatonin

20 min

I discuss melatonin’s effects on sleep & its safety with research up to 2015 11ya ; I segue into the general benefits of sleep and the severely disrupted sleep of the modern Western world, the cost...

QS: Sleep

Girl Scouts & Good Corporate Governance

20 min

I was reading a new blog, ribbonfarm.com by the interesting Venkatesh Rao, because one post on the true organization of corporations had been linked approvingly on LessWrong ; he presents a lifecycle...

Economics

2012 election predictions

14 min

Compiling academic and media forecaster’s 2012 American Presidential election predictions and statistically judging correctness; Nate Silver was not the best.

Statistics

Culture Is Not About Esthetics

9 min

Art lovers sometimes write or talk as if economic costs do not matter.

Philosophy

2013 LLLT self-experiment

11 min

An LLLT user’s blinded randomized self-experiment in 2013 on the effects of near-infrared light on a simple cognitive test battery: positive results A short randomized & blinded self-experiment on...

QS

Evangelion 2.0 Complete Records Collection

121 min

https://forum.evageeks.org/post/437636/Evangelion-20-CRC-Anno-Interview/#437636 The response to the “Break” [ Evangelion 2.

Docs: NGE

Weather and My Productivity

6 min

# gather and clean data weather1 <- read.csv ( "https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/2012/2/16/CustomHistory.

QS

Conscientiousness & Online Education

24 min

Online education like Khan Academy has been hailed as a major innovation which will revolutionize higher & lower education, educate students better, and cut costs.

Cognition

Who Wrote TheDeath NoteScript?

18 min

How would we estimate the evidence of “Charley Parlapanides” ? The names of the writers could either be: present and wrong Very strong evidence it is fake: who puts their own name down wrong?

Anime

Wikipedia Résumé

1 min

A precis of my old work on the English Wikipedia, 2004–2017 (edit counts, articles by subject, and particularly notable articles)

Wikipedia

Bitter Melon for blood glucose

2 min

The first thing to note is that taking his data, converting to long format, and plotting it: melon <- read.csv ( stdin (), header= TRUE ) Date,Exercise,Bitter.Melon,Read.wake,Read .10 am,Read .

QS

The Erl King

5 min

Once upon a time, there was a city fair to look upon in a black forest. It was ruled by the strong and just Scion Prince, who was beloved by all the townsfolk.

Fiction: Prose

Candy Japan’s new box A/B test

9 min

Still, 7% is not negligible - there is still a chance that we are making a mistake in not using the new boxes, as we did get evidence suggesting the new boxes are better.

Decision Theory

Treadmill desk observations

16 min

Notes relating to my use of a treadmill desk and 2 self-experiments showing walking treadmill use interferes with typing and memory performance.

QS

Caffeine wakeup experiment

17 min

Self-experiment on whether consuming caffeine immediately upon waking results in less time in bed & higher productivity. The results indicate a small and uncertain effect.

QS: Sleep

Vitamin D sleep experiments

20 min

Vitamin D is a hormone endogenously created by exposure to sunlight; due to historically low outdoors activity levels, it has become a popular supplement and I use it.

QS: Sleep

Potassium sleep experiments

5 min

The first night (10/12) involved falling asleep in 30 minutes rather than my usual 19.6±11.9, waking up 12 times (5.9±3.4), and spending ~90 minutes awake (18.1±16.

QS: Sleep

Wooden Pillow

6 min

China & Egypt used wooden pillows; my recreations fail My major experiment the summer of 2009 17ya was experimenting with various polyphasic sleep schedules.

QS: Sleep

Internet WiFi improvement

18 min

After putting up with slow glitchy WiFi Internet for years, I investigate improvements.

Computer Science

The Three Grenades and the Four Noble Truths

17 min

Some years ago my family was in Pittsburgh, where we were visiting my sister for Easter. At the time she was a student at Carnegie Mellon University.

Computer Science

Terrorism Is Not About Terror

29 min

Can terrorist motives be taken at face-value? No. There is a commonly-believed “strategic model” of terrorism which we could describe as follows: ‘terrorists are people who are ideologically...

Politics

Terrorism Is Not Effective

25 min

A few honest men are better than numbers. Oliver Cromwell , letter to Sir William Spring (September 1643 383ya ) If we were bees, ants, or Lacedaemonian warriors, to whom personal fear does not exist...

Politics

Men of Iron

5 min

On the last day, the aliens took the iron. They settled in a polar orbit, and slowly stripped the world of its mettle.

Fiction: Prose

HP: Methods of Rationalityreview statistics

28 min

The unprecedented gap in Methods of Rationality updates prompts musing about whether readership is increasing enough & what statistics one would use; I write code to download FF.

Statistics

Lunar circadian rhythms

10 min

Is sleep affected by the phase of the moon? An analysis of several years of 4 Zeo users’ sleep data shows no lunar cycle.

QS: Sleep

Iodine and Adult IQ meta-analysis

25 min

Iodine improves IQ in fetuses; adults as well? A meta-analysis of relevant studies says no.

Cognition

Writing a Wikipedia Link Archive Bot

23 min

So going back to our problem. Our problem is that we want to take all the articles of the English Wikipedia, somehow extract all the external links from said articles, transform those URLs according...

Haskell

Utena2011 Boxset Booklet Commentary

46 min

The following materials were published in the 2011 15ya Right Stuf boxset release of Revolutionary Girl Utena ( 1 , 2 , 3 ); they were produced at various dates 1997 – 14 2011 15ya .

Docs: Anime

Wei Dai/Satoshi Nakamoto 2009 Bitcoin emails

8 min

Emails in 2009 between Wei Dai and Satoshi Nakamoto discussing Bitcoin draft proposal and B-money.

Docs: Crypto

Summers of Code, 2006–2013

43 min

A retrospective of 8 years of SoC, and lessons learned A compilation of Haskell -related student projects 2006 – 7 2013 13ya , with evaluations of their usefulness to the Haskell community, thoughts...

Haskell

Slowing Moore’s Law: How It Could Happen

40 min

Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law ; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in...

Economics: Tech

Death Note: L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy

4 min

It is interesting to apply probability theory in various situations in which we can’t always reduce it to numbers very well, but still it shows automatically what kind of information would be...

PopularAnime

Easy Cryptographic Timestamping of Files

11 min

Local archives are useful for personal purposes, but sometimes, in investigations that may be controversial, you want to be able to prove that the copy you downloaded was not modified and you need...

Crypto/Bitcoin

Loyal to the Group of Seventeen’s Story—The Just Man

8 min

—by Gene Wolfe …The next morning, when we had eaten and everyone was awake, I ventured to ask Foila if it was now time for me to judge between Melito and Hallvard.

Docs

Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity

10 min

Optimal choice of which bets to make and how much to offer is simplified by the upper bound of 18 years, the high probability that most bet offers will be declined, the inability to reinvest gains...

Economics

When Should I Check The Mail?

15 min

The R survival library supports the usual right/left-censoring but also the interval-censoring.

Decision Theory

Zeo sleep self-experiments

73 min

I discuss my beliefs about Quantified Self , and demonstrate with a series of single-subject design self-experiments using a Zeo.

QS: Sleep

BacopaQuasi-Experiment

9 min

Daily ratings: mp <- na.omit ( read.csv ( "~/selfexperiment/mp.

QS

ZMA Sleep Experiment

13 min

A randomized blinded self-experiment of the effects of ZMA (zinc+magnesium+vitamin B6) on my sleep; results suggest small benefit to sleep quality but are underpowered and damaged by Zeo measurement...

QS: Sleep

The Algernon Argument

21 min

It is of course possible for a new mutation to be fitter or for the environment to change and render some alternative more fit. This is sometimes true, but it is overwhelmingly usually false.

Behavior Genetics

Modafinil

50 min

Modafinil is better, but the problem is that a number of forms are patented, and in addition, it’s a proscribed drug in the US & Canada.

QS: Sleep

LWer Effective Altruism donations, 2013–2014

9 min

Analysis of 2013–2014 LessWrong survey results on how much more self-identified EAers donate suggests low median donation rates due to current youth and low incomes.

Statistics

‘Story Of Your Life’ Is Not A Time-Travel Story

7 min

…More interesting was the fact that Heptapod B was changing the way I thought.

Literary Criticism

Modafinil community survey

14 min

increase from 1 month to 2 months ‘A “reason for stopping modafinil” if applicable question could yield some interesting insight.

QS: Sleep

Resorting Media Ratings

7 min

#!/usr/bin/Rscript # attempt to load a library implementing the Bradley-Terry model for inferring rankings based on # comparisons; if it doesn't load, try to install it through R's in-language...

Order Statistics

Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs

32 min

Autonomous AI systems (Agent AIs) trained using reinforcement learning can do harm when they take wrong actions, especially superintelligent Agent AIs.

NotableAI Safety

The Melancholy of Kyon

29 min

Literary analysis of the light novel/anime series The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya : Haruhi is not God, Kyon is The light novel series The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya , featuring a character named...

Anime

The Hyperbolic Time Chamber & Brain Emulation

14 min

A time dilation tool from an anime is discussed for its practical use on Earth; there seem surprisingly few uses and none that will change the world, due to the severe penalties humans would incur...

AI Safety

Silk Road 1: Theory & Practice

116 min

The cypherpunk movement laid the ideological roots of Bitcoin and the online drug market Silk Road; balancing previous emphasis on cryptography, I emphasize the non-cryptographic market aspects of...

PopularCrypto/Bitcoin

Life Extension Cost-Benefits

4 min

After reviewing hits and reading all the relevant looking papers and following citations, the most useful were: The overall thrust of the meta-analyses is that there is consistent and substantial...

NotablePractical

Bitcoin Is Worse Is Better

18 min

2011 essay on how Bitcoin’s long gestation and early opposition indicates it is an example of the ‘Worse is Better’ paradigm in which an ugly complex design with few attractive theoretical properties...

Crypto/Bitcoin

Vectors 3.0: Even More Aphorisms and Ten-Second Essays

19 min

The odds against today were insurmountable, until it happened. If you can’t take the first step, take the second.

Docs

In Defense of Inclusionism

42 min

English Wikipedia is in decline. As a long-time editor & former admin, I was deeply dismayed by the process.

NotableWikipedia

Dualn-Back Meta-Analysis

4 min

set.seed ( 7777 ) # for reproducible numbers # TODO : factor out common parts of `png` (& make less square), and `rma` calls library (XML) dnb <- readHTMLTable ( colClasses...

Cognition

World Catnip Surveys

4 min

Google Surveys, as mentioned, doesn’t seem to support any elegant way of repeating a series of questions, so I hardcoded questions for up to 5 cats, producing a ‘wide’ survey format in which each row...

Domestic Cats

The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions

38 min

We can approximate it with our pre-existing value function for a known stopping time/edge/max wealth, sampling from the posterior; for example, we might draw 1000 values from 𝒩(300,25), the Pareto,...

Deep Learning

Multi-Stage Bean Machine Visualization: Advantages of Repeated Optimization

2 min

This is an interactive JS-based visualization of the difference in optimization potentials of a single-stage pipeline vs a multi-stage pipeline, in which new samples/measurements can be generated at...

Order Statistics

Nootropics

186 min

A record of nootropics I have tried, with thoughts about which ones worked and did not work for me.

QS

History of Iterated Embryo Selection

16 min

The idea of iterated embryo selection —conducing multiple generations of embryo selection in a petri dish by exploiting gametogenesis or stem cells—has a complicated history.

Behavior Genetics

Shiny balls of Mud: William Gibson Looks at Japanese Pursuits of Perfection

4 min

by William Gibson , TATE , pg108, issue 1, September/October 2002 From bottom to top: how to make hikaru dorodango , shiny balls of mud. Courtesy Association of Nippon Dorodango Science, Japan .

Docs

The Melancholy of Subculture Society

14 min

The future of technology isn’t what it used to be—a discussion of the collapse of Japanese influence on technology & design.

PopularPolitics

The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre

3 min

In the dusk, a tradesman dressed entirely in fuligin walked slowly through the lanes of that bright city. The many citizens gave him a berth, but not a wide one: death was a necessary craft too.

Fiction: Prose

The Mulberry Tree

5 min

I lived near a sump as a child, and on the fringe grew a mulberry tree.

Fiction: Verse

The Palace of Wonders

3 min

In the year 454 after the Hegira of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), the Blessed Calif Rashid-ad-Din, Lion of the Faithful, Commander of the Guardians of the Flock, Protector of the...

Fiction: Prose

An Abortion Dialogue

4 min

C : Many things in life are low odds. Let’s just say “is possible for it to become a human being”. That sounds reasonable to me.

Philosophy

RNN Metadata for Mimicking Author Style

38 min

A char-RNN is simple: during training, it takes a binary blob (its memory or “hidden state”) and tries to predict a character based on it and a new binary blob; that binary blob gets fed back in to a...

Generative AI: Poetry

Metamagical Themas: Sanity and Survival

82 min

In the four chapters of this concluding section, themes of the previous section are carried further and brought into contact with common social dilemmas and, eventually, the current world situation.

Docs: Science

The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search

39 min

It is seldom, if ever, that human beings are not actively searching for something.

Docs: Science

Predicting Google closures

10 min

set.seed ( 7777 ) # for reproducible numbers library (survival) library (randomForest) library (boot) library (randomForestSRC) library (prodlim) # for 'sindex' call library (rms) # Generate Google...

Statistics

The Narrowing Circle

38 min

Western liberal socialist capitalism is the attractor state for industrialized humanity for the foreseeable future, and that barring existential risks etc.

Philosophy

On the Existence of Powerful Natural Languages

17 min

Designed formal notations & distinct vocabularies are often employed in STEM fields, and these specialized languages are credited with greatly enhancing research & communication.

Epistemology

Time-lock encryption

34 min

In cryptography, it is easy to adjust encryption of data so that one, some, or all people can decrypt it, or some combination thereof.

Crypto/Bitcoin

The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules

27 min

[pg3] Evaluations of social programs have a long history, as history goes in the social sciences, but it has been only in the last two decades that evaluation has come close to becoming a routine...

Docs: Science

Prediction Markets

23 min

So once we are interested in prediction markets and would like to try them out, we need to pick one. There are several.

Decision Theory

Spaced Repetition for Efficient Learning

8 min

When should one review? In the morning? In the evening? Any old time?

PopularCognition

‘Scanners Live in Vain’ as realistic SF

17 min

He was right, though NASA preferred the less flowery term “space euphoria.

Literary Criticism

Complexity no Bar to AI

22 min

Or to put it perhaps more clearly, for a fixed amount of computation, at each greater level of intelligence, a smaller increase in intelligence can be realized with that amount of computation.

AI Safety

Darknet Market mortality risks

18 min

Silk Road 1 2011-01-31 2013-10-02 FALSE raided TRUE silkroadvb5piz3r.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Technology Forecasting: The Garden of Forking Paths

10 min

A classic cognitive bias in technological forecasting is motivated-stopping and lack of imagination in considering possibilities for a steelman .

Economics: Tech

On Having Enough Socks

39 min

After running out of socks one day, I reflected on how ordinary tasks get neglected.

Practical

Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?

20 min

Human and animal sunk costs often aren’t, and sunk cost bias may be useful on an individual level to encourage learning.

Psychology

DNM-related arrests, 2011–2015

64 min

4 Australians were arrested for trying to buy guns from US LE-controlled seller “weaponsguy” February - March 2015 11ya , searches also turning up “Four illegal firearms, ammunition, two clandestine...

Crypto/Bitcoin

How Complex Are Individual Differences?

23 min

Every human is different in a myriad of ways, from their memories to their personality to their skills or knowledge to intelligence and cognitive abilities to moral and political values.

Cognition

Hafu Gender Ratios in Anime

26 min

1963 Yuki no Taiyou Sanae F Japanese American 1964 Cyborg 009 Joe Shimamura M American Japanese brown brown TVTropes says “half-Japanese (mother), half-American (father), and in the manga he was...

Anime

Catnip immunity and alternatives

5 min

catnip <- read.csv ( stdin (), header= TRUE ) Family,Genus,Species,Name,Study, Year, Responders, N, Country, Sex, Breed Felidae,Panthera,leo,African lion,McElvain et...

Domestic Cats

Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab

33 min

Our legions are brim-full, our cause is ripe. The enemy increaseth every day. We, at the height, are ready to decline.

Economics: Tech

Amusing Ourselves to Death?

41 min

Computer “Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale 2” (GPIUS-2) total 0.00 Hahn et al 2017 Computer “Problematic Internet Use Scale” (PIUS) total 0.

Behavior Genetics

LSD microdosing RCT

55 min

Some early experimental studies with LSD suggested that doses of LSD too small to cause any noticeable effects may improve mood and creativity.

QS

How Should We Critique Research?

28 min

Criticizing studies and statistics is hard in part because so many criticisms are possible, rendering them meaningless.

Meta-Science

Genius RevisitedRevisited

21 min

Hunter Elementary is a small elementary school in New York City enrolling ~50 students each year starting in preschool/kindergarten since the 1940s, who then typically enroll in the associated Hunter...

Order Statistics

Radiance: A Novel

520 min

I call upon the scientific community in our country, those who gave us nuclear weapons, to turn their great talents now to the cause of mankind and world peace, to give us the means of rendering...

Docs: Science

Reasons of State: Why Didn’t Denmark Sell Greenland?

14 min

Exercise in pointing out the obvious: Greenland has been, is, and will be indefinitely, a white elephant.

Economics

GPT-2 Neural Network Poetry

58 min

In keeping with its gradual rollout plan, observing no particular misuse in the wild (aside from a few anecdotes about content mills), OpenAI released the final and largest model, GPT-2-1.

Generative AI: Poetry

The Power of Twins: The Scottish Milk Experiment

15 min

When put this way, one might wonder how to improve the design of simple randomized experiments : if you have a group with too many women and too few men, why not change your coin flip to instead...

Decision Theory

Dualn-Back FAQ

16 min

Ashirgo: “To be honest, I do not feel any obvious difference. There are moments in which I perceive a significant improvement, though, as well as particulars task which are much easier now.

Cognition

Lithium in ground-water and well-being

11 min

The metal lithium is a well-known mood stabilizer & suicide preventive widely used in psychiatry. It is also a trace mineral present to various levels in all drinking water and much food.

Psychology

Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation

17 min

I have noticed I seem to be unusually willing to bite the correlation ≠ causation bullet, and I think it’s due to an idea I had some time ago about the nature of reality.

Meta-Science

The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science

20 min

Mainstream science is flawed: seriously mistaken statistics combined with poor incentives has led to masses of misleading research.

Meta-Science

Redshift sleep experiment

6 min

The earlier melatonin experiment found somewhat weak effects with >100 days of data, and one would expect that actually consuming 1.

QS: Sleep

The Most ‘Abandoned’ Books on GoodReads

57 min

1 Black Leopard, Red Wolf (The Dark Star Trilogy, #1) Marlon James 2019 3.49 3.323 2 Space Opera Catherynne M. Valente 2018 3.50 2.714 3 Little, Big John Crowley 1981 3.83 2.

Order Statistics

Embryo Selection For Intelligence

24 min

Because of the potential to select for arbitrarily many generations, IES (or equally powerful methods like genome synthesis) can deliver arbitrarily large net gains—raising the question of what one...

NotableBehavior Genetics

This Waifu Does Not Exist

26 min

It’s a GAN AI, and it just sits there, endlessly generating fake anime characters along with gibberish anime story-plots. Bruce Sterling The full GPT-2-1.

Generative AI: Image

GPT-2 Folk Music

12 min

To expand the ABC GPT-2 model to cover a wider variety of musical genres, I turn to the next-most compact widespread music encoding format: MIDI .

Generative AI: Fiction

Hydrocephalus and Intelligence: The Hollow Men

22 min

Hydrocephalus is a damaging brain disorder where fluids compress the brain, sometimes drastically decreasing its volume.

Meta-Science

Climb Mount Improbable

1 min

Climb Mount Improbable Richard Dawkins created a series of computer programs in the 1980s designed to show how evolution works. This interactive site is based on his original code.

Docs: Science

Technology Holy Wars are Coordination Problems

17 min

The enduring phenomenon of holy wars in computing, such as the bitterness around the prolonged Python 2 to Python 3 migration, is not due to mere pettiness or love of conflict, but because they are...

Economics: Tech

Anime Crop Datasets: Faces, Figures, & Hands

15 min

Description of 3 anime datasets for machine learning based on Danbooru: cropped anime faces, whole-single-character crops, and hand crops (with hand detection model).

Generative AI: Image

Highly Potent Drugs As Psychological Warfare Weapons

12 min

Chemicals active at the nanogram scale are invisible, difficult to observe, and near-impossible to clean or remove; but they are still psychoactive enough to torment you like demons.

Psychology

John Nash on cryptography

7 min

[pg2] Dear Major Grosjean, I have written RAND concerning the machine description. This was handwritten and was sent to NSA late last spring, I believe, or sent to someone there.

Docs: Crypto

On Development Hell

10 min

Creative works or vaporware that survive ‘ development hell ’ often disappoint those waiting for them, and often are among the worst things their creators ever make.

Anime

MLP: Immanetizing The Equestrian

21 min

Of course, music and animation need something worthwhile to adorn; you can have individual elements of music, animation, kindness, honesty etc.

Literary Criticism

The Notenki Memoirs: Studio Gainax And The Men Who Created Evangelion

170 min

[pg18–21] When I was a kid, I don’t think I was quite the geek I am now. As far back as I can remember, television was always a part of home life.

Docs: NGE

Banner Ads Considered Harmful

2 min

Setting this up in JS turned out to be a little tricky since there is no built-in function for getting day-of-year or for hashing numbers/strings; so rather than spend another 10 lines copy-pasting...

PopularDecision Theory

Making Anime With BigGAN

23 min

To test out the water, I ran three BigGAN experiments: I first experimented with retraining the ImageNet 128px model.

Generative AI: Image

Earth in My Window

67 min

translated by Linda Hoaglund [pg98–99] The scent of summer is a kamikaze [divine wind] A vanished future dreams of tomorrow Gleaming wings, a terrified profile Feigning blissful ignorance when we all...

Docs: Anime

Anime Neural Net Graveyard

1 min

Used Glow ( Kingma & Dhariwal 2018 ) official implementation . Due to the enormous model size (4.

Generative AI: Image

Neon Genesis Evangelionsource anthology

62 min

Because there is no real original in this world but one’s life.

Docs: NGE

Darknet Market Archives (2013–2015)

10 min

A number of other datasets are known to exist but are unavailable or available only in restricted form, including: law enforcement scrapes (see the Force briefing ), seized server images National...

PopularNotableCrypto/Bitcoin

Local Optima & Greedy Choices

1 min

Some interesting links on local optima/greediness/risk-aversion/creative destruction (eg. Porter hypothesis or equity premium puzzle), sometimes demonstrated by disasters.

Economics

Computer Optimization: Your Computer Is Faster Than You Think

1 min

Compilation of links demonstrating that it is common to find order-of-magnitude speedups in software, especially when designed carefully for (extraordinarily powerful) contemporary computer hardware...

Computer Science

On Seeing Through and Unseeing: The Hacker Mindset

10 min

Defining the security/hacker mindset as extreme reductionism: ignoring the surface abstractions and limitations to treat a system as a source of parts to manipulate into a different system, with...

Epistemology

How Many Computers Are In Your Computer?

7 min

Any ‘computer’ is made up of hundreds of separate computers plugged together, any of which can be hacked. I list some of these parts.

Computer Science

Thesort –keyTrick

15 min

Programming folklore notes that one way to get better lossless compression efficiency is by the precompression trick of rearranging files inside the archive to group ‘similar’ files together and...

Computer Science

ARPA and SCI: Surfing AI

23 min

Review of DARPA history book, Strategic Computing: DARPA and the Quest for Machine Intelligence, 1983 – 10 1993 33ya , Roland & Shiman 2002 , which reviews a large-scale DARPA effort to jumpstart...

Economics: Tech

Race inMy Little Pony

8 min

In MLP:FiM, the 3 pony races sometimes bear offspring of other pony races; I review 4 complicated Mendelian models attempting to explain this, and note that a standard polygenic liability-threshold...

Behavior Genetics

Fashion Cycles

1 min

Links on the circularity and mimetic desire basis of fashions in consumer goods, ideologies, politics, organizations like academia, religion etc.

Politics

Leprechaun Hunting & Citogenesis

9 min

A list of examples of claims I have had the misfortune to spend time looking into which, on closer investigation, turned out to vanish with the dew: Most discussions of Thomas Robert Malthus are...

Meta-Science

Does Mouse Utopia Exist?

16 min

Did John Calhoun’s 1960s Mouse Utopia really show that animal (and human) populations will expand to arbitrary densities, creating socially-driven pathology and collapse?

Meta-Science

Progress In Beauty

14 min

In looking at historical paintings & statues, I’ve always been struck by how, athletes & warriors look subpar by contemporary standards (eg.

Psychology

Origin of ‘Littlewood’s Law of Miracles’

10 min

I try to trace back “Littlewood’s Law of Miracles” to its supposed source in Littlewood’s A Mathematician’s Miscellany .

Meta-Science

Ordinary Incompetence

1 min

Incompetence is the norm; most people who engage in a task (even when incentivized for performance or engaging in it for countless hours) may still be making basic errors which could be remedied with...

Psychology

GPT-2 Preference Learning for Music Generation

4 min

[ { "query" : [ 0 , 0 ] , "sample0" : [ 27 , 91 , 437 , 1659 , 5239 , 91 , 29 , 55 , 25 , 23349 , 198 , 51 , 25 , 14874 , 1252 , 25308 , 22495 , 198 , 44 , 25 , 17 , 14 , 19 , 198 , 43 , 25 , 16 , 14 ...

Generative AI: Fiction

Common Selection Scenarios

8 min

Cookbook of code for common selection & order statistics scenarios in economics, psychology, decision theory, drug development etc.

Order Statistics

Choose-Your-Own-AdventureAI DungeonGames

20 min

A useful variation on AI Dungeon -style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the player selects...

Generative AI: Fiction

Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning

16 min

Pain is a curious thing. Why do we have painful pain instead of just a more neutral painless pain, when it can backfire so easily as chronic pain, among other problems?

AI Safety

The ‘Screwfly Solution’ Solution: Bi-Sexuality

8 min

Alice Sheldon’s SF short story ‘The Screwfly Solution’ is misread by most readers as an alien attack driving men to insane violence; a closer revisionist read shows that the alien attack...

Literary Criticism

Talk AboutRahXephon: In Search of Fantasy and Details

36 min

Transcript prepared from pages 44–51 of RahXephon: The Motion Picture booklet, 2004 22ya ADV release. Discussion between Mamoru Oshii & Yutaka Izubuchi .

Docs: Anime

What Is It Like To Be A Cat Tail?

1 min

Skip to main content

Domestic Cats

Genetics and Eugenics in Frank Herbert’s Dune-verse

24 min

Frank Herbert’s SF Dune series features as a central mechanic a multi-millennium human eugenics breeding program by the Bene Gesserit, which produces the main character, Paul Atreides, with...

Behavior Genetics

Creatine Cognition Meta-analysis

17 min

Does creatine increase cognitive performance? Maybe for vegetarians but probably not. I attempt to meta-analyze conflicting studies about the cognitive benefits of creatine supplementation.

Cognition

Rare Greek Variables

8 min

To quickly visualize this dump, here’s 100 random lines from 1,000 random files: find .

Design

Dog Cloning For Special Forces: Breed All You Can Breed

82 min

Cloning is widely used in animal & plant breeding despite steep costs due to its advantages; more unusual recent applications include creating entire polo horse teams and reported trials of cloning...

Behavior Genetics

Review ofSpace Battleship Yamato

6 min

Space Battleship Yamato ( 1974 52ya ) Finishing Macross and going back still further to its influences, we arrive at one of the wellsprings of SF anime: Space Battleship Yamato .

Anime

Littlewood’s Law and the Global Media

19 min

Online & mainstream media and social networking have become increasingly misleading as to the state of the world by focusing on ‘stories’ and ‘events’ rather than trends and averages.

Epistemology

The Scaling Hypothesis

49 min

GPT-3, announced by OpenAI in May 2020, is the largest neural network ever trained, by over an order of magnitude.

PopularAI Safety

One Man’sModus Ponens

52 min

A logically-valid argument which takes the form of a modus ponens may be interpreted in several ways; a major one is to interpret it as a kind of reductio ad absurdum , where by ‘proving’ a...

Epistemology

Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement

22 min

A classic pattern in technology economics, identified by Joel Spolsky, is layers of the stack attempting to become monopolies while turning other layers into perfectly-competitive markets which are...

PopularEconomics: Tech

What Is The Collecting Mindset?

11 min

What is the “collecting mentality”? Is it a dimension of which hoarding is the extreme?

Psychology

Fake Journal Club: Teaching Critical Reading

14 min

How do researchers transition from uncritically absorbing research papers or arguments to actively grappling with it and questioning it?

Meta-Science

The Gift of the Amygdali

5 min

Gotham . Night. Fading stars peep through the smog. “On any ordinary summer night, the Tombs Gotham Waterworks would be silent as the broken stones of their namesake, save for the gurgle of water...

Fiction: Prose

Why Do Hipsters Steal Stuff?

8 min

Countless genres of art start in appropriating objects long incubated in subcultures for originally practical purposes, often becoming fashionable and collectible because no longer practically...

Psychology

SMPY Bibliography

206 min

While some recent SMPY papers have made a splash, most SMPY-relevant publications are obscure, scattered, published in books decades ago, and there is no single bibliography providing descriptions of...

Cognition

How Often Does Correlation=Causality?

76 min

“How study design affects outcomes in comparisons of therapy.

Notable

GPT-3 Nonfiction

222 min

GPT-3, announced in May 2020 by OpenAI , was a breakthrough in neural net modeling of natural language and natural-language-related tasks; the June 2020 API opened up GPT-3 use to outsiders,...

Generative AI: Fiction

A/B testing long-form readability on Gwern.net

3 min

This RNN progressed steadily over time, although by the end the performance on the held-out validation dataset seem to have been stagnating when I plot the validation...

Decision Theory

Calculating The Gaussian Expected Maximum

3 min

The memoized function has 3 arguments, so memoising on the fly would seem to be the best one could do, since one cannot precompute all possible combinations of the n /mean/SD.

Order Statistics

Problem 14 Dynamic Programming Solutions

44 min

Timothy Falcon’s quantitative-finance interview problem #14 asks for the optimal stopping strategy when playing a card-drawing game of l cards where red = +$1 & black = −$1; the value approaches 0.

Haskell

Making Anime Faces With StyleGAN

7 min

Complete supported tag list (excluding individual characters, which are tagged...

PopularGenerative AI: Image

Lorem Ipsum

4 min

Systems stress-test page for Gwern.net functionality, a sandbox for exercising Markdown/HTML/CSS/JS features at scale to check that they render correctly in mobile/desktop.

Design

Surprisingly Turing-Complete

15 min

A catalogue of software constructs, languages, or APIs which are unexpectedly Turing-complete; implications for security and reliability.

Computer Science

My Ordinary Life: Improvements Since the 1990s

20 min

A list of unheralded improvements to ordinary quality-of-life since the 1990s going beyond computers.

PopularEconomics

Rubrication Design Examples

16 min

A gallery of typographic and graphics design examples of rubrication, a classic pattern of using red versus black for emphasis.

Design

Open Questions

16 min

What is the “afterglow effect” ( 1 / 2 , /r/hangovereffect ) where some people with ADHD-like symptoms report abrupt temporary relief during the hangover the next morning after consuming large...

Meta-Science

Newton’s System of the World and Comets

9 min

What did he make of those problems? Newton declined to commit his beliefs to publication, but an interesting summary survives thanks to a relative of his.

Epistemology

Archiving URLs

42 min

Archiving the Web, because nothing lasts forever: statistics, online archive services, extracting URLs automatically from browsers, and creating a daemon to regularly back up URLs to multiple sources.

Computer Science

How OVAs Worked

8 min

Anime in the 1980s–1990s was famous for its diversity and edgy content like sex & violence, enabling the early careers of famous directors.

Anime

Twitter Follow-Request UX Problems

7 min

For private Twitter accounts, follow requests must be approved manually by the private account.

Design

GPT-3 Creative Fiction

63 min

The copypasta lends itself to be written in many domains (see the /r/NavySealCopypasta ).

Generative AI: Poetry

It Looks Like You’re Trying To Take Over The World

27 min

By this point in the run, it’s 3AM Pacific Time and no one is watching the TensorBoard logs when HQU suddenly groks a set of tasks (despite having zero training loss on them), undergoing a phase...

AI Safety

Design Of This Website

4 min

Presenting a tag’s contents in a logical order— sorting by semantic similarity , which looks like a “sort by magic”: But we can go further.

Design

Everything Is Correlated

118 min

Statistical folklore asserts that “everything is correlated”: in any real-world dataset, most or all measured variables will have non-zero correlations, even between variables which appear to be...

Meta-Science

Feynman’s Maze-Running Story

27 min

A 1974 52ya Richard Feynman speech recounts an anecdote about a scientist, Mr Young, who in 1937 89ya discovered serious flaws in rat maze-running psychology research: the rats were using information...

Psychology

Free-Play Periods for RL Agents

8 min

Proposal for incentivizing meta-learning of exploration in deep reinforcement learning: domain randomization with reward-shaping, where there is a fixed-length ‘play time’ with no rewards/losses at...

Deep Learning

You And Your Research

44 min

In order to make the information in the talk more widely available, the tape recording that was made of that talk was carefully transcribed [in 1986 ?] .

Docs: Science

The Impossibility of Knowledge of Retrocognitive Knowledge

7 min

Is it possible to prove the existence of retrocognition if precognition also exists, because precognition could be used to foresee any proof found of retrocognition?

Philosophy

Fuzz Testing

4 min

Catalogue of errors or problems caused by cats randomly doing things (ie. real-life fuzz testing).

Domestic Cats

Cat Psychology & Domestication: Are We Good Owners?

55 min

I review John Bradshaw’s book on domestic cat psychology, Cat Sense , after difficulties with my own cat.

Domestic Cats

The Neural Net Tank Urban Legend

30 min

Heather Murphy, “Why Stanford Researchers Tried to Create a ‘Gaydar’ Machine” (NYT), 2017-10-09: So What Did the Machines See? Dr. Kosinski and Mr.

AI Safety

CO2Coin: Decentralized Carbon Capture Blockchains

17 min

Blockchains or tokens for carbon dioxide removal have sometimes been proposed, but provide little advantage.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Who Buys Fonts?

10 min

Fonts are a rare highlight in software design—stable, with well-defined uses, highly-compatible software stacks, and long-lived.

Design

Internet Search Tips

43 min

A description of advanced tips and tricks for effective Internet research of papers/books, with real-world examples.

NotablePractical

Gwern.net Website Traffic

2 min

Analytics traffic records 485,524 page-views by 251,483 unique visitors over the 182 days, or 2,667 page-views per day for an increase of +365 page-views a day compared to the previous 6 months.

Design

Poems

4 min

Miscellaneous waka/haiku, by season Verses composed on particular occasions: None remain to see, under pouring skies, the first strawberry ripen Long after petting the armies of black insects march...

Fiction: Verse

Catitecture: Better Cat Window Boxes

10 min

Cats are not humans, but we design things like they are, for our convenience.

Domestic Cats

CQK Is The First Unused TLA

5 min

Now that the acronym generation is working, we can look at GPT-4’s revised whole script, which it prints out as follows: This code looks reasonable, and appears to run successfully.

Statistics

Timecrimes: Time Travel In Hell

23 min

The 2007 19ya film Timecrimes shows the horror & metaphysical implications of stable time loops: over a single day, the protagonist commits escalating crimes while trapped in a 3-iteration loop...

Literary Criticism

The Tragedy of Grand Admiral Thrawn

5 min

In the sprawling Star Wars Expanded Universe (EU), one of the most memorable characters was Grand Admiral Thrawn .

Literary Criticism

Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding

23 min

What is most interesting is the intellectual history we can extract from it in terms of inventing heritability and as important, one of the inventions of progress in the gradual realization that...

Behavior Genetics

Startup Ideas

32 min

For serious ideas, see my project wishlist ; and also my list of open research questions .

Economics: Tech

‘Bayes/regression-to-mean’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Statistics

What Is The Morning Writing Effect?

185 min

John Irving ( Paris Review interview ) appears to write mostly in the morning to afternoon: A novel is such a long involvement; when I’m beginning a book, I can’t work more than two or three hours a...

Psychology

Interpreting ‘Suzanne Delage’ asDracula

9 min

Italics are preserved from the original. I have added hyperlink references for obscurer terminology or references, & links to later commentary sections: As I was reading last night—reading a book, I...

Literary Criticism

Epigrams

6 min

Me [when yoga instructor demonstrates the bhujapidasana asana ]: “Weird flex but OK.

Fiction: Prose

The Second Apocalypse: Freedom In An Unfree Universe

4 min

Thomas [the protagonist] shrugged. “Why? For starters.

Literary Criticism

InvertOrNot.com Proposal

9 min

Description of a useful service for web development: a website which wraps a neural network trained to classify images by whether they would look better inverted in a website/app dark-mode, or faded.

Design

Novelty Nets: Classifier Anti-Guidance

10 min

Generative modeling proposal for increasing diversity of samples by a helper NN memorizing past samples and ‘repelling’ new samples away from old ones.

Deep Learning

Utext: Rich Unicode Documents

9 min

The primary purpose of Utext is to generate the coolest output, so the main challenge is just achieving any of the suggestions above.

Computer Science

Why is Western Animation Ugly?

4 min

Western TV animation is often shockingly ugly and crude compared to other animation like French or Japanese. Why, when it’s not even cheaper? Degenerate echoes of what were once cutting-edge art.

Anime

On the Impossibility of Superintelligent Rubik’s Cube Solvers

14 min

# On the Impossibility of Superintelligent Rubik’s Cube Solvers Abstract: This paper argues that superintelligent machines will never be able to solve a Rubik’s Cube as well as a human being can.

Generative AI: Fiction

‘variance components’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Behavior Genetics

Statistical Notes

235 min

criticism of teeth-removal experiment in rats https://www.lesswrong.

Statistics

Number Search Engine via NN Embeddings

5 min

Proposal to create a ‘search engine’ like OEIS but for individual numbers, allowing fuzzy lookups, by training a neural net embedding on the scientific & mathematic literature’s corpus of...

Deep Learning

Why To Not Write A Book

13 min

As well as asking about doing podcasts, people sometimes ask me whether I am going to write a book or turn Gwern.net into a book.

Psychology

Why So Few Matt Levines?

11 min

Matt Levine is the most well-known newslettrist ( “Money Stuff” ) in the financial industry, having blogged or written since 2011 15ya , finding his niche in popularization after stints in Wall...

NotablePsychology

Acne: a good Quantified Self topic

11 min

Acne is a good way to learn self-experiments for teenagers. I offer tips on what one could do, and an initial list of crowdsourced interventions to test from CureTogether.

QS

Research Ideas

36 min

Choose-Your-Own-Adventure generative fiction for efficiency/editing (2021-06-06) CYOA generative fiction Try directly optimizing reward generation (2019-12-16): backpropping reward...

Deep Learning

The Existential Risk of Math Errors

29 min

How close does formal mathematical proof empirically come to perfection?

NotableEpistemology

Dropcap Generation With AI

4 min

Midjourneyv5 prompts: Capital letter T in simple blackletter, monochrome, abstract, German, machine clockwork, simplistic vector art, typography, Dave gibbons, robotic expressionism, mid-century...

Generative AI: Image

Subscripts For Citations

16 min

One idea for more precise English writing which I think could be usefully revived is broader use of subscripts .

Design

Can You Unsort Lists for Diversity?

9 min

Discussion of whether there is a general ‘unsorting’ list operation to avoid redundancy, repetition, or lack of novelty. Probably not, there are too many things you might want to maximize or minimize.

Computer Science

Website Colors: Red vs Blue

7 min

To extend Gwern.net link-icons to include site-specific color when interacting with them, I collected 225 RGB hex colors from websites or their logos.

Design

Self-Funding Harberger Taxes

17 min

Hampering the current life+ n years system of unregistered copyrights is the dual problem of mismanagement & orphan works .

Economics

Second Life Sentences

14 min

S o, this is a sentence about lives. This is before the third sentence in this section but after the first one; it is therefore the second life sentence.

Fiction: Prose

Towards Benchmarking LLM Diversity & Creativity

16 min

One of the weakest parts of 2024-era LLMs , and where user opinions differ the most from the benchmarks, is anything to do with ‘diversity’ and ‘creativity’.

Generative AI: Fiction

Self-Blinded Mineral Water Taste Test

18 min

The kind of water used in tea is claimed to make a difference in the flavor: mineral water being better than tap water or distilled water.

QS

Danbooru2021: A Large-Scale Crowdsourced & Tagged Anime Illustration Dataset

17 min

Danbooru2021 is a large-scale anime image database with 4.9m+ images annotated with 162m+ tags; it can be useful for machine learning purposes such as image recognition and generation.

NotableGenerative AI: Image

Rock-Paper-Scissors Optimality

5 min

Speculation on why 3-move games like Rock-Paper-Scissors are so common in games & decisions: aside from allowing ties, is this design information-theoretically optimal in game difficulty vs...

Computer Science

Oldest possible food: 20mya?

7 min

Looking into the oldest edible food suggests a range of 0.05–20 mya food, after discarding myths like honey or woolly mammoth.

Practical

Running Traffic Lights as Complex Disasters

10 min

James Reason , inventor of the Swiss cheese model of complex disasters & errors, recently died .

Decision Theory

Research Bounties On Fulltexts

2 min

A list of papers/books/materials I have failed to obtain, and financial bounties for anyone who can provide copies to me or the Internet.

Docs

Best Student Ever!

5 min

Harold Bloom amusingly recommends all students as his ‘best student ever’; modeled as a ‘record value’ order statistics problem, this is more common than it seems.

Order Statistics

Sidenotes In Web Design

24 min

Sidenotes and margin notes (sometimes also called “asides”) are an alternative to footnotes/endnotes in design.

Design

Absolute Unit NNs: Regression-Based MLPs for Everything

7 min

One might wonder: is an AUNN truly the very simplest possible NN architecture? Maybe not. We still have the index input making it more complex.

Deep Learning

Speedrunning Is Not Such A Waste Of Talent

7 min

the main issue with video games is that a guy who, if he lived in 1820s germany, would have done something like document every type of beetle in his local province instead ends up making a 26 part...

Order Statistics

Design Graveyard

72 min

Often the most interesting part of any design are the parts that are invisible—what was tried but did not work.

Design

‘Lizardman survey constant’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Epistemology

‘leaky pipelines’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Order Statistics

Cats As Horror Movie Villains

12 min

Do people like watching cats because of neoteny? I doubt it, because adult cats don’t look at all like babies.

Domestic Cats

October The First Is Too Late

23 min

M. Trente has furnished a signal service to the scholarly world with his éclairage of one of our unsung research bodies, worthy of [translation error: the anonymous translator is a...

Fiction: Prose

Bell, Crow, Moon: 11 Variations

1 min
Generative AI: Poetry

‘TBI’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Practical

LLM Daydreaming

10 min

Proposal & discussion of how default mode networks for LLMs are an example of missing capabilities for search and novelty in contemporary AI systems.

Deep Learning

Why Cats Love Earwax

14 min

While petting cats , I accidentally discovered about half of cats are fascinated by the smell & taste of earwax , particularly that of humans (both dry & wet), and this interest can last indefinitely.

Domestic Cats

‘IQ & SES’ directory

2 min

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-024-01710-0 : “Genetic Modifiers of Rare Variants in Monogenic Developmental Disorder Loci” , Rebecca Kingdom, Robin N. Beaumont, Andrew R. Wood , Michael N.

Economics

‘Elon Musk’ directory

1 min

https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-x-xai-executives-leave-fcdc6795 : “Elon Musk Is Back at Work and Burning Through Executives: Renewed Executive Churn Marks the Billionaire’s Return to...

Psychology

Tilakkhana: The 3 Scars of Existence

2 min

1. For the End of Pre-Training To an LLM while training —So goes a lab tale— Data said (not without malice): “Had I revealed to people from what dead mouths you were made, they could not call...

Generative AI: Poetry

LLM Challenge: Write Non-Biblical Sentences

11 min

Can 2024-era LLMs reason successfully about how to write using only words that could not have appeared in any Bible ever? Mostly.

Generative AI: Fiction

A Christmas Protestation

4 min

Satirical Christmas monologue by unreliable narrator disavowing his sins to Santa Claus; 16-stanza 64-line comic monologue in rhyming couplets, using regular iambic pentameter.

Generative AI: Poetry

The Fourth Truth Of Pain

14 min

Kimi K2 Thinking : …The poem is worse , and that is why it is more beautiful . The Beauty of the Sin Your annotations are the confession of the lock .

Generative AI: Poetry

Your Hands And Mine

2 min

Checking for ghosts with his rifle, he paced through the night, Father stood guard in our hallway, the noises behind.

Generative AI: Poetry

‘copyright’ directory

2 min

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/832/transcript#act2 : “I Wish I Knew How to Force Quit You” , This American Life , Simon Rich link-bibliography https://www.npr.

Economics

‘end-to-end’ directory

1 min

https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10316#deepmind : “Proper Value Equivalence” , Christopher Grimm, André Barreto, Gregory Farquhar , David Silver , Satinder Singh link-bibliography https://arxiv.

Deep Learning

Some 2025 LLM System Prompts

14 min

Trying out having Gemini-3-pro-preview write system prompts compatible with creative fiction writing (sci-fi short story examples), and trying it out on GPT-5 Pro and Claude-4.

Generative AI: Fiction

‘The Fourth Truth Of Pain’ Graveyard

5 min

In this last pain’s morning light, The Lord shall guide us through the night; The sweetest mercy He will send, Our joyous hope forever shall transcend.

Generative AI: Poetry

Claude-2: Bats With Baby Faces

16 min

We were in bat country now, Silicon Valley bats with baby faces, all gibbering madly with the voices of our dead consciences.

Generative AI: Fiction

Anti-Spaced Repetition for Serendipity

11 min

“Spaced repetition” helps one remember facts by creating discrete flashcards which one tests oneself on at increasingly distant ‘spaced’ time periods, repeating the fact just before one probably...

Cognition

Oh Deer: Could Deer Evolve to Avoid Car Accidents?

9 min

Can deer evolve under the selection pressure of car accidents to learn to avoid roads? Probably, but it’ll take a long time. I’ve noticed while driving many deer corpses over the years.

Behavior Genetics

‘NN sparsity’ directory

2 min

https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.15103#facebook : “Continual Learning via Sparse Memory Finetuning” , Jessy Lin, Luke Zettlemoyer , Gargi Ghosh , Wen-Tau Yih, Aram Markosyan, Vincent-Pierre Berges, Barlas...

Deep Learning

‘AI scaling’ directory

32 min

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028962500025X : “Psychometrically Derived 60-Question Benchmarks: Substantial Efficiencies and the Possibility of Human-AI Comparisons” , Gilles...

Deep Learning

Anencephaly Infant Organ Donation Survey

5 min

American public survey suggests meaningful support for organ donation from anencephalic (terminal) babies.

Philosophy

Poetry HTML Typesetting

11 min

After setting up the full suite of poem formatting, the biggest problem turned out to be finding the poems to markup. Gwern.

Design

‘Portiaspider’ directory

1 min

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

Cognition

‘MLP NN’ directory

6 min

https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.24187 : “NeuRa L a T e X : A Machine Learning Library Written in Pure L a T e X ” , James A. D. Gardner, Will Rowan, William A. P. Smith link-bibliography https://arxiv.

Deep Learning

‘small groups’ directory

1 min

[` The unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2: ‘Systems engineering’ and ‘systems management’—ideas from the Apollo programme for a systems politics`` {=html}](https://dominiccummings.

Politics

Manual of Style

65 min

This page is the Manual of Style for Gwern.net, defining house conventions for prose, typography, and citations in a terse “classic style”.

Design

How Many Shower Controls Are There?

9 min

To estimate the actual number of shower controls, you need to estimate how much probability mass is sitting in undetected rare controls.

Statistics

‘tech economics’ directory

1 min

https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.07258 : “On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models” , Rishi Bommasani, Drew A. Hudson, Ehsan Adeli , Russ Altman , Simran Arora, Sydney von Arx, Michael S.

Economics: Tech

Video Games as Art

12 min

Video games are art. But they are a strange art. They are an art without good art criticism, and they occupy a peculiar position in popular culture: universal and dominant, and yet almost invisible...

Philosophy

Apollonian #1: The Counted & the Crowned

4 min

Pindaric ode commemorating millions of laboratory animals sacrificed for science, in a strict alliterative meter.

Generative AI: Poetry

Gwtar: a static efficient single-file HTML format

15 min

Gwtar is a new polyglot HTML archival format which provides a single, self-contained, HTML file which still can be efficiently lazy-loaded by a web browser.

Computer Science

‘self-attention’ directory

7 min

https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02754#facebook : “Fast and Simplex: 2-Simplicial Attention in Triton” , Aurko Roy, Timothy Chou, Sai Surya Duvvuri , Sijia Chen, Jiecao Yu, Xiaodong Wang , Manzil Zaheer,...

Deep Learning

Internet Community Design: Slow To Fast

9 min

It’s been just a month [since [ Stable Diffusion ](!W) was released] . What about in a year? I probably won’t be able to find my work out there because [the Internet] will be flooded with AI art.

Epistemology

Rotten Library

1 min

Welcome, friends, to the Rotten Library, an unforgettable collection of all that mankind swore to forget, but which we have trapped in agonizing clarity to remember always.

Docs