Gwern — Statistics↗

Has Google Alerts been sending fewer results the past few years? Yes.

Compiling academic and media forecaster’s 2012 American Presidential election predictions and statistically judging correctness; Nate Silver was not the best.

The unprecedented gap in Methods of Rationality updates prompts musing about whether readership is increasing enough & what statistics one would use; I write code to download FF.

Analysis of 2013–2014 LessWrong survey results on how much more self-identified EAers donate suggests low median donation rates due to current youth and low incomes.

set.seed ( 7777 ) # for reproducible numbers library (survival) library (randomForest) library (boot) library (randomForestSRC) library (prodlim) # for 'sindex' call library (rms) # Generate Google...

Now that the acronym generation is working, we can look at GPT-4’s revised whole script, which it prints out as follows: This code looks reasonable, and appears to run successfully.

Annotations sorted by machine learning into inferred 'tags' . This provides an alternative way to browse: instead of by date order, one can browse in topic order.

criticism of teeth-removal experiment in rats https://www.lesswrong.

To estimate the actual number of shower controls, you need to estimate how much probability mass is sitting in undetected rare controls.