Gwern — Decision Theory↗

Still, 7% is not negligible - there is still a chance that we are making a mistake in not using the new boxes, as we did get evidence suggesting the new boxes are better.

The R survival library supports the usual right/left-censoring but also the interval-censoring.

So once we are interested in prediction markets and would like to try them out, we need to pick one. There are several.

When put this way, one might wonder how to improve the design of simple randomized experiments : if you have a group with too many women and too few men, why not change your coin flip to instead...

Setting this up in JS turned out to be a little tricky since there is no built-in function for getting day-of-year or for hashing numbers/strings; so rather than spend another 10 lines copy-pasting...

This RNN progressed steadily over time, although by the end the performance on the held-out validation dataset seem to have been stagnating when I plot the validation...

James Reason , inventor of the Swiss cheese model of complex disasters & errors, recently died .