Discoveries transform our lives—through breakthrough medicines, technologies and completely new ways to understand the world. Yet one of science's greatest unsolved puzzles remains: how do new discoveries actually emerge? Despite their impact, there is still no general theory explaining how major breakthroughs across science arise. To tackle the puzzle, we study science's over 750 major discoveries— spanning all nobel-prize and major non-nobel breakthroughs—and link them to the methods and tools they used and to the discoverers themselves. We find a surprising and striking pattern: science's major discoveries are sparked by a new method or tool that enables observing, studying and understanding the world in entirely new ways—and commonly reveal what we did not even expect. From new bacteria and viruses to unknown particles and distant galaxies. In fact, we uncover that most discoveries in the last few decades are triggered just a few years after the tool was created—and many at the same time. From new microscopy techniques that exposed the extraordinary structure of our nervous system, to a more powerful particle accelerator that revealed the antiproton. Remarkably, we also find that powerful tools—from new x-ray devices and electron microscopes to spectrometers and chromatography—have each unlocked dozens of major discoveries that were impossible without them. What unites the diverse discoveries that each of these tools made possible is not a shared theory, research teams or more funding, it is using the shared powerful tool—each uncovering groundbreaking findings across different fields. Understanding this tool-driven principle of scientific progress gives us a powerful new way to understand and accelerate discoveries. We can apply this principle widely across science, from physics to medicine, and it can provide a foundation for the science of science—and a new way to predict discovery itself.
When Theodor Svedberg built the first ultracentrifuge in 1924 at Uppsala University in Sweden, he could not have imagined that his new invention would be used in developing many discoveries across biology and medicine. At its core, the ultracentrifuge is an instrument optimised for spinning samples at ultrahigh speeds at over 20,000 revolutions per minute. It enables us to separate small particles—from cells to viruses—in fluids, gases and liquids. A few years later, when Svedberg's doctoral student Arne Tiselius developed the breakthrough method of electrophoresis in 1930, he could not have predicted that this new technique would be applied in making many discoveries—and even lay the groundwork for the powerful method of DNA sequencing. Electrophoresis allows us to separate different substances by their size and electrical charge—like proteins or DNA fragments. It has helped transform how we understand many diseases and our immune response. Today, gel electrophoresis is used in cutting-edge research from personalised medicine to forensic science. We will return to the human stories behind science's best toolmakers—what drives and motivates them to push the boundaries and make these inventions. But we first zoom out to tackle the big question: how do we actually spark new discoveries? Ask ten scientists, and we often get ten different answers. Surprisingly, there is no consensus—not across the fields that study science, and not even within them. How can discovery—the most groundbreaking and fascinating part of science—remain so elusive? The two most common answers given across science are: breakthroughs come from more funding (that can enable more researchers and experiments) or from research teams and collaboration (that can bring together more expertise). Others argue that they happen through interdisciplinary research, through greater training and education or even through more productive younger researchers. Still others argue that they come about from paradigm shifts in theories or from problem-solving—or even from sudden flashes of insight or serendipity. As the book unfolds, we will explore how each of these factors varies by discovery, by field and by researcher—and alone are not enough to trigger breakthroughs. Of five main disciplinary approaches to explaining discovery, computer scientists are the most ambitious—attempting to develop computer programmes that could generate new breakthroughs. Some can only reproduce past discoveries— in abstract or limited ways. Others leverage large-scale data, new artificial intelligence (AI) methods and advanced statistics to help detect patterns and make predictions—like modelling climate change and identifying new drug candidates. Scientometricians track the system and dynamics of science— following the trails of cited papers across metrics like high productivity, collaboration networks and career paths in science. Psychologists explore the minds behind the breakthroughs—tracing what shapes scientific reasoning and motivation. Historians often turn the lens on past scientific theories but also remind us that context matters—with pandemics, changing governments and global challenges at times nudging the history of science in certain directions. And finally, philosophers are often more sceptical—arguing that how discovery happens does not follow a systematic or logical process. Despite the different explanations, we have not yet uncovered what the common driver tying discoveries together is—the unifying thread. Could it be because science's major discoveries have simply not yet been studied in a comprehensive way that lets us spot the common patterns? And because studies have not yet systematically investigated a crucial piece: the role of new methods and tools? In this chapter, we take on this challenge. After all, many see the 'identification of fundamental mechanisms responsible for scientific discovery' as the core question of the science of science—as the holy grail of research on discovery. A new way forward for us to solve this fundamental puzzle is taking the most direct path: opening up science's over 750 major breakthroughs for in-depth analysis of who, when, where and how they emerged. By analysing the methods behind them and the broad traits of the discoverers themselves—at the same time—this allows us to compare and assess the different factors together. It enables us, for the first time, to tackle the puzzle at its core: what consistently sparks science's biggest breakthroughs—the common driver—and what factors only apply to certain breakthroughs? This powerful new approach moves us beyond the common limits of exploring one factor or small samples of discoveries. It opens the door to developing a general theory of science's major discoveries across fields. So instead of generally isolating one piece of the puzzle, we can see the full picture. At its core, we explore the wide range of factors from the age and training of the discoverers to their university ranking, whether serendipity played a role, and much more. Surprisingly, we find that discoveries consistently share one common pattern: across fields and time periods, science's major discoverers rely on a new method or tool that triggers their new breakthrough finding. What is remarkable is that this is the only factor that consistently shows up in breakthrough after breakthrough—from chemistry and medicine to astronomy and beyond. We unpack this key finding up front in Chapter 1. In the chapters that follow, we will explore in depth the range of other factors—and why some matter only for specific breakthroughs. By examining science's biggest discoveries, we will uncover, for example in biology, how powerful methods and tools—from new microscopes and electrophoresis to centrifuges and chromatography—transformed the field and how we understand life. These extraordinary tools triggered discoveries that were previously impossible: from viruses to the structure of the cell. We uncover this striking pattern across science. Before inventing these tools, we faced blind spots and much of nature was simply out of our reach. But after creating them, we could see further, think deeper and probe more complexly into new layers of reality.
At this point, readers may just want to get to the discoveries—and the stories behind their discoverers. But before we get there, we first have to lay out the data—this may seem dry, yet it is essential. Much of what follows builds upon it—laying the foundation for studying how science's major discoveries unfold. These cover all 533 nobel-prize-winning discoveries across science—from the first year of the prize in 1901 to 2022. The Nobel prize is widely seen as the most prestigious scientific award for 'the most important discoveries'—with winners selected by leading experts in their field. Yet not every major breakthrough wins a Nobel. Some came before the prize existed, others can fall somewhat outside its scope. To capture as complete a picture as possible, we also incorporated the discoveries featured in all science textbooks that list the top 100 greatest scientists and their breakthroughs—and span across fields and history; in total, seven textbooks were published and added to the dataset. After excluding duplicates, 302 discoveries remained—and of those, 74 won a Nobel. This left 228 discoveries that—when added to the 533 nobel-prize discoveries—brings us to a total of 761 major discoveries that shaped the history of science across fields. If the Nobel prize had existed earlier, eminent scientists—from Galileo, Newton, Hooke and Boyle to Darwin and Maxwell—would almost certainly have received the prize. And they are all included here among the major non-nobel discoveries. The large overlap in discoveries between each of the science textbooks and the nobelprize discoveries points to the strong consensus on science's biggest discoveries. It reinforces that we cover basically all of the most influential discoveries across science. Likely, everyone will find their top 50 or 100 greatest scientific discoveries among these over 750 discoveries. Still, many leading studies on scientific progress trace patterns in citations simply because how often researchers are cited is easy to access and study. Bibliographic databases already provide the data, eliminating complex manual data collection. But here, with this new approach, we identified the original discovery-making publication for each of the 761 breakthroughs. For each discovery, we extracted the central method or tool they used—outlined in that publication—and linked the data to the broader traits of the discovery and discoverer. We then confirmed the year both the central method and discovery were made. Unlike citation data that can be gathered and analysed in weeks or months, this research demanded much greater time and extensive manual research. This is the first book built on manually reading and extracting data from each of the over 750 discovery papers. By adopting this deeper approach, we can trace the discovery process as described by the discoverers themselves—and then confirmed with other scientific publications. This approach enables us to getinside each major discovery across science and also explore them at scale—probing them from outside or at high altitude as well. So each discovery—whether experimental, theoretical or methodological—is linked here to the central methods and tools they used and to the characteristics of the discoverers— all at the time of the discovery. The central method or tool is defined as a major method or tool applied in the discovery-making paper. In the paper, it is commonly highlighted by the discoverers (and often also in their Nobel lectures) as key to the breakthrough. We find that the discovery would not have been possible without it. And the method is also later widely adopted, and typically used to generate multiple discoveries, showing its scientific impact. The main source is thus the discovery paper—and for discoveries earning a Nobel that means the prize-winning studies. And just to be clear: throughout the book, whenever we mention a year, we are always referring to when the discovery or method was published—not when the Nobel was later awarded.
discovery Let us begin with a breakthrough in astronomy. In 1946, the astronomer Martin Ryle revolutionised how we explore the universe with an innovative invention. He did not construct a larger telescope, but linked smaller telescopes kilometres apart that could capture radio waves. Built at Cambridge, this new system opened telescopic observations on a massive scale—as large as the space between the different telescopes. It added power and precision, making it possible to map distant stars and galaxies with unprecedented resolution. And it opened a new window onto the universe that transformed radio astronomy. Then in 1967, a groundbreaking discovery was made by Antony Hewish and his 24-year-old graduate student Jocelyn Bell Burnell. While scanning the sky, Burnell noticed a peculiar signal—a regular pulse of radio waves, something no star was supposed to emit. It was the discovery of pulsars—neutron stars—sparked by an enormous new radio telescope that Hewish built that same year using that same innovative technique. Before their discovery, neither pulsars nor quasars were known and no theory could have predicted they exist. Jointly, the two published this trailblazing finding in Nature, in a paper titled Observation of a rapidly pulsating radio source . Yet when the Nobel prize followed, it was awarded only to Ryle and Hewish—overlooking Burnell. But the deeper insight is that without the invention of radio telescopes, pulsars would have remained invisible. We could not otherwise detect the radio waves emitted by galaxies, supernova and pulsars millions of light-years away. In short: they give us access and unlock a part of the universe that was out of reach before them. They are just one of many extraordinary instruments that transform not only what we can detect—but how we can imagine the universe. By analysing science's over 750 greatest discoveries, we uncover five powerful insights—that we will unpack in the chapter's next five sections: 1) We spark science's major discoveries by developing a new method or tool—that makes the breakthroughs possible. New tools like x-ray devices, electron microscopes, spectrometers and chromatography have each enabled uncovering dozens of breakthroughs—from revealing the structure of molecules and vitamins to the mechanisms of cellular life. For each of these tools, the shared thread across the different discoveries they made possible is not a common theory, research teams or additional funding, but it is using the common tool—each uncovering breakthrough findings across different fields. 2) Our powerful tools trigger new breakthroughs by extending what and how we can observe, detect and measure the world . We see this clearly in the ten central methods and tools most used to make nobel-prize discoveries: statistical/mathematical methods, microscopes (optical and electron), x-ray methods, centrifuges, spectrometers, chromatography, electrophoresis, lasers, particle accelerators and particle detectors. 3) There are three ways new methods and tools power new discoveries . One way is that a researcher develops a method or tool and then uses it in making a discovery (responsible for 25% of science's major discoveries). The second way is that a researcher creates a new method or tool, and another researcher—in the same or a different field—uses it to trigger a discovery (representing 50% of cases). The third way is that a researcher invents a new method or tool that is the major discovery itself (making up 25% of cases)—like the electron microscope and the particle accelerator. 4) New breakthroughs often follow soon after developing the new enabling tools . Surprisingly, one in ten major discoveries has been sparked simultaneously—or in the same year—the new key method or tool is created. Two in ten follow within two years. And since 1975, more than half—at 51%—of major discoveries emerge within just four years, highlighting the power of method innovations. 5) Creating a new method or tool is often more foundational to scientific progress— across different fields and over time—than individual scientific discoveries . While a single breakthrough can reveal bacteria or detect a planet, the same tool can uncover multiple discoveries: from cells and mitochondria to galaxies and exoplanets that were not even being searched for. Our powerful tools— whether microscopes or spectrographs—often outlive single scientific discoveries in impact. Because many enable multiple discoveries: in different fields, at present and in the future. Many such breakthroughs are exploratory—not theory-driven—and they begin with a new lens to the world.